Analyst: Democratic Gubernatorial Primary Still ‘Wide Open’

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(Host) As the five way race for the Democratic nomination for governor enters its final days, political analysts say the contest is still wide open.

And the election will probably be won by the campaign that conducts the most effective get out the vote campaign.

VPR’s Bob Kinzel reports.

(Kinzel) Over the weekend, all the campaigns are planning rallies in virtually every part of the state, they’re setting up phone banks and making thousands of calls to voters, and their volunteers will be knocking on doors and dropping off literature in an effort to sway undecided voters.

Middlebury College political science professor emeritus Eric Davis believes that the race is wide open.

Speaking on VPR’s Vermont Edition, Davis said he sees several scenarios that could play out on Election Day:

(Davis) "The first is that the two candidates who have the momentum now – Peter Shumlin and Matt Dunne – fight it out in a very close battle and one of them emerges in first place, the other in second and Deb Markowitz is third. The second scenario is that Deb Markowitz, who I believe was in the lead in June, manages to hold on to enough of that lead that she wins a narrow plurality next Tuesday."

(Kinzel) And Davis has a scenario where Doug Racine emerges as the winner of the Democratic Primary:

(Davis) "The third scenario is that Doug Racine, who is the only candidate from Chittenden County, comes out of Chittenden with a big lead, the other candidates are very closely bunched in the rest of the state and Racine’s Chittenden lead is enough for him to come out on top on Tuesday."

(Kinzel) Davis says he’s not surprised that there are so many undecided voters just days before the election:

(Davis) "Voters see this large field, there’s no consensus front runner by any means, the voters are looking carefully at all the candidates and I expect that many people will make up their minds sometime between Sunday evening and when they go to the polls on Tuesday." 

(Kinzel) Davis says if the Democrats want to have a good chance of defeating Republican candidate Brian Dubie in the General Election, the 4 losing gubernatorial candidates must strongly support the candidate who wins and be willing to share some of their fundraising information.

For VPR News, I’m Bob Kinzel in Montpelier.

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